November 1, 2013

NHL Trade Analysis: Downie for Talbot

Breaking down the trade between the Colorado Avalanche and the Philadelphia Flyers.

Colorado Avalanche
Background:
The Avalanche, to the surprise of everyone, are off to one of the hottest starts in the league - winning 10 of their first 11 games and amassing 20 points in process (2 shy of San Jose's league leading 22 points).
Why:
The Avalanche are buying into new coach Patrick Roy's defensive minded system and the results speak for themselves.  The results are very similar to a few years ago when current St. Louis Blues coach Ken Hitchcock came in and and implemented a defense first style which turned a mediocre St. Louis team into perennial Cup contenders. With this new system in place, the Avalanche need players that fit into it.  Max Talbot is a prime example of a defense first player.  He is one of, if not the best depth forwards in the league and can play in multiple situations but specializes on the penalty kill - something Coach Roy said was the basis for this trade.  He will fit in nicely on a young Colorado team who is also looking for a leader in the locker room and a mentor for it's developing stars.  Talbot provides all of that and more.  Downie, who came over via free agency after two productive years (four total) in Tampa Bay, was a complete bust once he came over to the Avalanche.  Part of that was injuries but most of it was that he just was not the same player once taken away from the likes of St. Louis, Stamkos and Lecavalier in Tampa Bay.  He struggled to fit in with his new team - making this trade not that huge a surprise.
Team Position Rankings After Trade (TPRAT):
Offense:  Down
Defense:  Up
Goaltending:  Same
Special Teams:  Up

Philadelphia Flyers
Background:
The Flyers are off to one their worst starts in the past decade (3-8:  6 points) and management needs to do something to try and shake things up.
Why:
There are a lot of problems with this team and bringing in Downie won't even come close to fixing everything but the Flyers are hoping to reunite Downie with former Tampa Bay teammate Vincent Lecavalier in order to recreate the success Downie had his final few years in Tampa (46, 32, 26 points, respectively).  Not to sound cliche, but Downie is also a stereotypical Flyer in that he is very physical and has a history to be somewhat of an agitator.  Picking him up was not a surprise - considering his lack of success in Colorado and the type of player he is.  Also, Downie played his first two seasons in the NHL with the Flyers so he will be returning to an organization he is somewhat familiar with - something that often goes overlooked when a player is traded in that it goes along way for a player's comfort level when coming back to a place he knows rather than entering completely new territory.
TPRAT:
Offense: Up
Defense: Down
Goaltending: Same
Special Teams: Down

Final Word:
Overall, this trade was about as fair as it gets.  Both teams know exactly what they are getting in two very predictable players.  Only time will tell if Downie can recreate the chemistry he had with former teammate Vincent Lecavalier in Philly - something that will effectively decide who won this trade.  As for right now though, I think that Colorado won this trade, albeit by a very narrow margin, because I believe Maxime Talbot is a more complete player than Steve Downie.

Winner:
Colorado Avalanche


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