November 1, 2013

MLB Free Agency Analysis: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates - coming off their first winning season in 20 years - finally are in a position of strength coming into an offseason.  The Pirates lineup, flush with young talent, does not have that many gaping holes that need filling through free agency.  The spots that do need filling are 1B and RF (they need one or both positions to have power or home run ability) - as well as some decent bench players and a defensive replacement for the infield.  Also, there is the conundrum of what to do with RHP A.J. Burnett. Here is a list I have devised of possible in house and free agent players that the Pirates could look to in order to fill those holes as well as my opinion on the whole A.J. Burnett debate.

1B: 
In House
Justin Morneau (Last Season: .259 AVG, 17 HR, 77 RBI) - $$$$
Garrett Jones (.233 AVG, 15 HR, 51 RBI) - $$
Gabby Sanchez (.254 AVG, 7 HR, 36 RBI) - $$
Andrew Lambo (.233 AVG, 1 HR, 2 RBI) *signed, rookie - $

Free Agents
Kendrys Morales (.277 AVG, 23 HR, 80 RBI) - $$$$
James Loney (.299 AVG, 13 HR, 75 RBI) - $$$
Corey Hart (INJURED - DID NOT PLAY) (2011/12: .270 AVG, 30 HR, 83 RBI) - $$$

Analysis:
Garrett Jones is gone.  It's a foregone conclusion heading into the offseason.  Gabby is no longer a starting 1B and Lambo is too young/inexperienced.  That leaves the only real option In House to be Morneau - who under performed in terms of power hitting once he came to Pittsburgh at the trade deadline. Morneau would still cost a decent amount of money, despite his age and would likely only sign a 1 year deal. Still he would be a very solid player who you could count on to at least hit .250 with the occasional HR.  Not the worst plan as he would still be an upgrade over the Jones/Sanchez combination last year.

I feel the better option for the Pirates would be to look into the free agent pool, as there are a few decent options at 1B.  The best option, and safest, would be Seattle Mariners'-Kendrys Morales.  He is only 30, so he has some time left before he starts to decline talent wise and provides a solid bit of power hitting to go along with a nice .270 batting average.  The problem with him is that he is one of, if not the best, pure first basemen on the market this offseason - meaning the Pirates may not get him / can not afford him.

Next is Tampa Bay Rays' - James Loney.  He is only 29 years old so, like Morales, he has some time before he starts to decline talent wise.  Loney hits more for average than for power, hitting almost .300 last season, so it would not fill the power void in the Pirates lineup - but adding a .300 AVG hitter is never a bad thing.  He would also be cheaper than Morales, leaving some more money to spend on other positions.

Then comes the most interesting option - Milwaukee Brewers' - Corey Hart.  Hart, 31, is the oldest of the three but also the one with the most power.  Since the 2010 season he has hit 31, 26 and 30 HR each hear, respectively.  The problem is that he missed all of last year with multiple knee injures.  GM Neal Huntington has had great success in regards to taking chances on players who were hurt the year before.  The risk is there for Hart, and it's a significant one at that - but so is the possible payoff.

RF:
In House:
Marlon Byrd (.291 AVG, 24 HR, 88 RBI) - $$$$$+
Jose Tabata (.282 AVG, 6 HR, 33 RBI) *signed - $$
Andrew Lambo (.233 AVG, 1 HR, 2 RBI) *signed, rookie - $

Free Agents:
Nate McLouth (.258 AVG, 12 HR, 36 RBI) - $$$
Michael Morse (.215 AVG, 13 HR, 27 RBI) - $$
Chris Young (.200 AVG, 12 HR, 40 RBI) - $$

Analysis:
The Pirates best option for RF would be to sign Marlon Byrd.  Byrd, who came over at the trade deadline last year, was everything he was advertised to be.  He provided the power the Pirates needed in their line up and was irreplaceable leading up to, as well as in, the playoffs.  The problem with Byrd is that he is 36, so his career is rounding down, where as Jose Tabata, who played well enough last year to have a starting job in the OF, is only 28.  Also, Tabata is SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper than Byrd, who will fetch more than a pretty penny on the free agent market in the coming weeks.  Lambo is, at best, a fill in for one of the two this year.  He is simply too young and too inexperienced to have a starting job with other, better options out there for the Pirates.  Simply put, the Pirates should try and sign Byrd who would be the power they need in their lineup.  The question is whether or not they can afford him....

Stop one on the in the OF free agent pool is a familiar one. Nate McLouth, former Pittsburgh Pirate who was chased out a few years ago after the Pirates gave him another shot in which he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, found himself again with the Baltimore Orioles the past two season.  He has been respectable, hitting .250+ the past two seasons.  The problem here is that he does not satisfy the Pirates need for power and, in my opinion, would be a downgrade from Jose Tabata who is already signed next season.  McLouth has earned a starting job somewhere, just not, in my opinion, in Pittsburgh.

Next comes Seattle Mariners  - Michael Morse, who significantly under performed last year after the Mariners acquired him to add power to their line up.  Back in 2011, Michael hit 31 HR while with the Washington Nationals - but has not reached the 20 HR mark since.  Morse would be a relatively cheap pick up, especially when compared to Byrd, but I feel he would be best suited as a bench player because the amount of risk/reward with him just is not worth it for the Pirates this year.

Lastly, comes Oakland As' - Chis Young.  Chris was a pretty good player in his early days in Arizona, hitting 32 HR in 2007 and 27 HR in 2010.  His HR total since 2010 has steadily declined, going from 20 to 14 to 12 last season.  Young is a relatively cheap risk for which ever team picks him up.  He has proven he has the power but what's such a big concern is that he has only his above .250 once in his career.  This is a last resort for the Pirates (although he would be an ok bench player), but still the options they already have are better than this.

RHP:
In House:
A.J. Burnett (10-11, 3.30 ERA, 209 K, 67 BB, 191 IP) - $$$$$

Now comes the current great debate in Pittsburgh - whether or not go keep RHP A.J. Burnett.  AJ has been irreplaceable on the team the past few seasons - being a steady presence on the mound while being a leader in the locker room. His competitive nature has spread to the rest of his Pirate teammates and he should be contributed as a huge reason to the Pirates turn around the past few seasons. During the time he was here, his former team, the New York Yankees, were paying half his salary.  If the Pirates were to keep AJ next year, they would have to pay all of his contract - which would be around $14 M for 1 year.
In my opinion, AJ has to stay.  He means more to this team than just his pitching and to let him go now would be a step backwards.  The Pirates have some money in their pocket this offseason and they should spend some of it on AJ - if for no other reason than what he means to this city and to this team.







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