Playoff Preview - First Round

A little late - but the games that have been played have not changed my picks at all.

East

Most Likely to be Conference Champs: New York Rangers
Most Likely to Disappoint: Boston Bruins
Dark Horse: Detroit Red Wings
MVP: Ryan McDonagh

Tampa Bay vs. Montreal
An interesting match up on paper is not on the ice.  Going into the playoffs, the Lightning are beat up and in a state of flux.  Loosing St. Louis to the Rangers at the trade deadline, which is weird to say because they got a hell of a player in return in Ryan Callahan, really hurt the team.  Everything on the team, contrary to popular belief, ran through him.  Taking such a important cog out of a team so close to playoff time is never good for chemistry...and add in the fact that their MVP and should-be Vezina Trophy winner goalie Ben Bishop is hurt starting the playoffs.  That, most of all, is the reason the Lightning will struggle heavily going into this series.  Look out for them in the future though - this team has a wealth of young talent, some of which is not even in the NHL yet (Jonathan Drouin, cough, cough) but as of right now they are just too hurt and too much in a state of flux from the St. Louis trade to battle with a pretty strong Canadiens squad.  Montreal plays a very tight, structured game and the trade for scoring winger Vanek at the trade deadline seems to be paying off big time.  Montreal takes this one relatively easily.
Winner: Montreal Canadiens - 5 Games

Philadelphia vs New York Rangers 
Philly got the short end of the stick as they drew the one team they truly struggle to beat in the Metropolitan Division for their first round opponent.  I liked (and I say that with a scorn on my face) the Flyers coming into the postseason and I originally had them as my dark horse team coming out of the East....until they got locked into a match-up with the Rangers.  The Flyers are a good team...but much like the Lightning they do not have their starting goaltender to start the postseason and I have very little faith in goalie goon Ray Emery to pick up the slack from Steve Mason who has had a tremendous first full season with the Flyers.  The Rangers on the other hand are a very healthy team and have the most consistent goaltender in the NHL in Henrik Lundqvist.  The style the Rangers play, as well as their deep defense core, has always done to the Flyers what the Flyers do to the Penguins - basically get them out of their comfort zone and make them go out of their minds with frustration.  This series will come down to the Flyers not being able to score enough on a pretty strong defensive Rangers club - but then again this is all a moot point because the Flyers are not going to go anywhere with Emery in net.  Wow is he bad.
Winner: New York Rangers - 6 Games

Pittsburgh vs Columbus 
The easiest pick of all the first round match-ups, East or West.  That's not me being biased to my favorite team either.  The Pens style of play matches up extremely well against a very young Blue Jackets squad who has yet to register a postseason win for their franchise in their 14 year of existence.  The Pens take this series very easily - leaving the Blue Jackets still win-less in the postseason.
Winner: Pittsburgh Penguins - 4 Games

Boston vs Detroit 
Here is is, my pick for biggest playoff flop this postseason.  Boston is the clear cut favorite to come out of the East - and for good reason.  Looking at the Bruins' roster, there are no real holes in it - it's kind of scary in fact.  But Detroit is Detroit.  For some reason the Red Wings, and by some reason I mean their coach Mike Babcock, perform well in the postseason year in and year out.  Detroit has been in a very similar situation to the Pens all season in that they have been riddled with injuries, so it's been hard to really judge how good this team is since they haven't played together all season.  Also like the Pens, they are getting healthy at the right time and this sets up the perfect storm for a first round upset.  Don't get me wrong though, this won't be easy.  This series is up for grabs and it will be a defensive battle till the very end for two of the best coached teams in the NHL - but I take Detroit in this one simply because I believe Boston's luck has to end sometime and I believe that time is now.
Winner: Detroit Red Wings

West

Most Likely to be Conference Champs: Anaheim Ducks
Most Likely to Disappoint: San Jose Sharks
Dark Horse: Dallas Stars
MVP:  Ducks Goaltending Trio - Hiller/Andersen/Gibson

St. Louis vs Chicago
The best mach-up of the first round.  These Western Conference powerhouses both have about the same chance to go to the finals and both teams are about as deep and stacked as you could possibly be.  St. Louis has a slight edge in goaltending in late season pickup Ryan Miller but besides that these teams are pretty evenly matched.  This series should and will come down to the wire and whoever comes out on top will reach the conference final.  I have St. Louis taking this one, simply because I think their style of play is a little bit more suited for the playoffs, and they have Ryan Miler - but the defending Stanley Cup champions Blackhawks have just about as much chance as the Blues do to win this.
Enjoy this one folks, it has all the makings of an instant classic.
Winner: St. Louis Blues - 7 Games

San Jose vs Los Angeles 
It's pretty cut and dry - until the Sharks prove to me that they can win in the playoffs I will not pick them to win anything.  The Kings are the best defensive team in hockey and I believe that, if they can score enough, they will shut down the Sharks high octane offense and take this series relatively easily.  
Winner: Los Angeles Kings - 6 Games

Colorado vs Minnesota 
I'll be honest, I don't know a lot about either of these teams.  I've never a been a big fan of Minnesota though - they're a team built 100% from free agency and I don't believe that breeds success for a franchise.  Also, going into the playoffs, their goaltending situation is about as grim as anyone's in that they have......wait for it....Ilya Bryzgalov starting for them.  No I'm completely serious - the Bear guy is back.  Colorado has surprised me all season and I don't expect them to stop now - just don't expect them to get past St. Louis or Chicago in the next round.  The Avalanche take this one without breaking a sweat (quickly prompting Wild GM Chuck Fletcher to acquire every free agent on the market in hopes of buying a winning team)
Winner: Colorado Avalanche - 5 Games

Anaheim vs Dallas
It was great to see such a hard working team like Dallas finally get back to the post season after being a bubble team for the past couple years.  The Stars are led by Bruin's throwaway (nice going Boston, didn't think that one through, did you?) -Tyler Seguin and the most underrated, unappreciated player in the league - Jamie Benn.  If you haven't been following hockey in Texas this year, and why would you, it's Texas, let me just say that the combination of Benn and Seguin has simply been the best combo in the NHL - bar none.  No two combination of players were more important to their team this year then them and, keeping with the trend of undervalued players, Dallas's goaltender, Kari Lehtonen, is one of the biggest work horses in the NHL and tends to go unnoticed because of where he plays.  That should change as this is one of the best goalies in the NHL.  Despite all of that though the Ducks are the most evenly spread offensive team in the NHL and boast the best goaltending trio, yes trio, probably in the world.  Also, Teemu Selanne.  No one is really giving Dallas a chance here but I could see a possible upset in the works if the Ducks can not solve the dynamic duo of Benn/Seguin in time.  I'm giving this one to Anaheim - mainly because I can't see Teemu going out in the first round in the last playoffs of his career.  Keep an eye out for Dallas in the future though - this team has the potential to be a player in the West in the seasons to come.
Winner: Anaheim Ducks - 6 Games

A Rookie Maattas

Take a look back at the Stanley Cup finalists (the last two teams remaining) for say, the past five seasons.  Chances are at least one of them every year has something in common.  An overlying factor commonly overlooked in the grand scheme of things when looking back on the the series as a whole.

A rookie.

Not just any rookie of course.  The type of rookie I'm referring to is one that makes a significant enough impact but, more importantly, was not part of the teams original plans at the start of the season.  Take, for example, rookie Boston D-Man Torey Krug, who spent the better part of his short first season in the NHL playing for the Bruins in their run to the finals last year - and looking pretty good in the process. On the opposite end, look at Pittsburgh native and Chicago Blackhawks rookie forward Brandon Saad. 

Throughout the playoffs last year, both players gained their far share of recognition by the league, and rightfully so.  Neither team would have made it to where they were last year without them, I'm convinced of that.  But is wasn't simply the play of these rookies that made them so vital to the team, but, more importantly, their unexpected presence.  

When looking at a team, and I know every hockey fan (coach, player, GM, etc) has done this either pre-season, pre-trade deadline or pre-playoffs (or all three for that matter), you look for possible weaknesses in your lineup.  On the flip side, you look for possible weaknesses in the lineups of your most hated rivals.  Having a rookie surprisingly, and unexpectedly, fill a top NHL spot at any point of the season is something that you simply cannot predict.  It would be like counting your chickens before they hatched, if you were.  But this random even, this unexplained stroke of luck is something that, in my opinion, you need nowadays in order to be a serious Stanley Cup contender.  

Lets go back to our Torey Krug example.  Going into the playoffs, the Boston Bruins lacked a true puck moving, offensive defenseman ala Kris Letang.  Sure they had (and still have for that matter) many above par Dmen that could execute puck movement efficiently, but none that truly excelled in the process like some other star NHL Dmen do.

Enter Torey Krug.

Do you think for a moment that the likes of the Maple Leafs, Rangers and Penguins thought to themselves going into the playoffs: "Hey, better watch for that Torey Krug fella. I hear he's pretty good at scoring goals."  

No, of course not.  They had no idea who he was and, if they did, it was just from AHL reports which by no means translates into guaranteed NHL success.  

A player like Krug can be applied to any team, any where in the NHL.  A rookie who, at some point in the season, steps in and makes the roster unexpectedly better without so much as a draft pick going out the door to another team.  It's a random event, a stroke of luck that few teams are able to conjure up year after year.

But when they do it, in my opinion, provides that extra boost on and off the ice - off the ice referring as how opposing teams look to prepare against you - that takes teams from being Stanley Cup players to serious Stanley Cup contenders.  

So as your watching this upcoming NHL post-season, take a look at all the surprising rookies sprinkled throughout the rosters of all the teams.  There has been a plethora of them this year.  

Guarantee by the end of this hockey enriched gauntlet that one of them will be the, although unsung, hero for their team. 

It just the way it works these days.  

In the NHL playoffs.  

A rookie Maattas.