Baseball is starting to get into full swing.
So of course it's time for an NFL article, as it's never too early to start thinking about fantasy football.
Below is my take on a love/hate piece - ski/not ski (skilled, not skilled) - as I take a look at who I think will be studs and duds in the upcoming season. This will give all you tinkerers out there plenty of time to tinker with your drafting strategy before that fateful day sometime in September.
And off we go:
Ski
Jamaal Charles
RB - Kansas City Chiefs
Current Position: 3
My Position: 1
In a year where there is no clear cut number one, Charles, in my opinion, is the one you want to take first overall if you manage to grab the first overall pick. As of right now, the top three options are Eddie Lacy, Le'Veon Bell and Jamaal Charles, all of which have some positives and some negatives. Lacy has been one of the more consistent backs over the last two seasons. Last season, after starting slow the first couple weeks, he put up a very strong 1,349 yard / 9 TD season, which puts him without question as a RB1 entering into next season. Bell, by far the best of the three last season, is going to be dealing with some sort of suspension coming into next season. Despite the fact that he should be the number 1 overall pick, the fact that you know you won't have him until at the very least week 2 has to scare most people, myself included, away from taking him first overall. That leaves Charles, who put up very similar numbers to Lacy last season with a 1,033 yard / 9 TD stat line. Honestly, you're fine picking either player. Both are so similar, not in the way they play but in the stats they put up, that I would feel confident in picking either player. So why would I pick Charles? It's simple really. Kansas City is not exactly a great passing team. When they do pass though, there's a high chance it's either going to Charles or the TE Travis Kelce because the WR's in Kansas City couldn't catch a cold if they were running around outside naked during winter. Green Bay on the other hand, the team in which Eddie Lacy suits up for, is a much more round out offense. They can pass or they can run. It's what makes them so dangerous on the field but it is also what turns me off from Lacy and turns me on to Charles. I know that Charles is the one key to the Kansas City offense, where as Lacy is just a small cog in the ever churning powerhouse that is the Green Bay offensive machine. In this regard, I feel Charles has a higher ceiling and, therefore, should be the first overall pick.
Matt Forte
RB- Chicago Bears
Current Position: 9
My Position: 5
Jay Cutler is not a good QB. This we all, or should all know by now. With Branden Marshall now gone, the rather weak offensive prowess of this team actually got weaker over the off season. Then again, there's really not much you can do with Cutler as your QB, so it doesn't really matter who your WRs are. What does matter, is that now that Marshall is gone, you can expect to see Forte get an even larger share of the offensive point spread on the Bears this season, which is saying a lot because he usually is the one leading the team in that category anyway. Forte is currently projected to go 9th in this years draft. He should be going in the top 5. Draft him with confidence no matter where you pick him. He is Mr. Reliable when it comes to fantasy football and I don't see that changing this season, especially while Cutler is around in Chicago.
Jordy Nelson
WR - Green Bay Packers
Current Position: 16
My Position: 12
Ok, ok, I know what I said about the Packers offense but sometimes you just have to go with your gut. My gut says that Jordy Nelson is the second best WR in all of football and should be drafted a such. Currently sandwiched between Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones, Jordy by far in a way is the smartest pick of all of them. Why is this? Well, I've always said that a WR is only as good as his QB. Their successes are directly tied to one another. Jordy Nelson has the best QB in all of football right now while Beckham Jr. and Jones....do not. They most certainly do not. That's not to say they're not talented as both of them are and I'm sure they'll put up their share of points this coming season - but, once again, both will struggle at times when their QBs struggle. Fantasy football is all about consistency, consistently finding players who will put up points week in and week out. At the end of the season, Jones and Odell may have the higher point totals - but I guarantee that their points will be more clumped up around a few monster weeks, rather than Jordy who will consistently put up 10-20 points a week no matter what. Jordy is the safe, and smart, pick of this clump of WRs - draft him accordingly.
Calvin Johnson
WR - Detroit Lions
Current Position: 18
My Position: 14
Johnson had an off season last year. By his standards, that only meant catching for 1,077 yards and 8 TDs. Matt Stafford is, in my opinion, a pretty decent option at QB (regardless of what the folks at ESPN thing - #Undraftable?) so my whole theory about QBs and WRs success being tied together is in check here. Johnson can get work done with pretty much any QB. He's that strong, he's that talented. There's is a reason he went as the top WR last year and it's why you should scoop him up again this year: Plainly put, Johnson is a beast. Don't expect him to have two "off" seasons two years in a row. Draft him and reap the benefits.
Not Ski
Adrian Peterson
RB - Minnesota Vikings
Current Position: 4
My Position: 8
Last season, I drafted Peterson #1 overall expecting him to be my rock for the whole season. Turns out, Peterson had other plans in mind and those plans just happened to include beating his child and getting suspended for the whole season. That alone puts him on this list because, last I checked, beating your child was until he bleeds is a very not ski thing to do. Not ski indeed. All that aside, Peterson has come out and said that he really does not want to play for the Vikings next year because of all the shit that went down last year because clearly the Vikings were the one's at fault last year, not Adrian. If there's one thing I hate when selecting a fantasy player for my team, it's one in which the player and their corresponding team do not get along. Who's to say where Peterson end's up at season's end? Who's to say he plays at all? As of right now, I don't know the answer to those two questions and therefore am not wasting another first round pick on this guy for a second straight year, no matter how talented he is.
C.J. Anderson
RB - Denver Broncos
Current Position: 8
My Position: 15
I feel like every time someone takes a Denver RB in a fantasy draft, it should immediately be followed by the "Austin Powers" living dangerously meme. The past two seasons, the Denver RB situation has been basically a carousel of random faces. Monte Ball, Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Hillman - all have seen time as Denver's starter. And you know what, I'm sure Anderson continues this trend in the upcoming season. I'm sorry but I don't want to waste a first round pick on someone who might not be the starter for his own team at years end. Simply not enough upside here for me to risk that after what has happened in Denver the past two seasons.
LeSean McCoy
RB - Buffalo Bills
Current Position: 12
My Position: 16
LeSean McCoy is a very good running back. However, he is no longer in offensively friendly Philadelphia, being traded to the Buffalo Bills during the off season during Philly's firesale. No matter how you spin it, that's going to show to some extent this year in the offensive black hole (or just black hole in general) that is Buffalo. Considering the years both of their running back had last year (Spiller, Jackson), I'm going to stay well clear of any Buffalo RBs this upcoming season, even it is Shady McCoy.
Odell Beckham Jr.
WR - New York Giants
Current Rank: 15
My Rank: 20
If there's one thing I want you to understand about my philosophy about fantasy football, it's one word: consistency. OBJ (too lazy to spell his name every time) is, by far, the most exciting young player in the NFL today. Having him on my team last year after, especially after fellow Giant Victor Cruz went down with an exploded knee in week 4, was just delightful. That being said there's a ton of risk picking him this high up in the draft. Why is that you ask? Well first off, look at his QB. Eli Manning is not exactly what one would consider very accurate with his passes. I don't really see Eli helping Odell's cause this coming year so that's a huge problem for me already. Secondly, Odell has only played half a season. Now that half a season was absolutely incredible but, still, it was just half a season. His play did warrant him a top 25 ranking, no doubt, but top 15? I think that's a little much, especially with the obvious risk you have taking a second (more like first year) rookie as your presumable WR1. There's tremendous upside with OBJ but, once again, I would go with a more stable, possibly consistent player that you know you can rely on without a doubt to be your WR1 throughout the season. For me, OBJ just is not at that level of reliability - at least not yet anyway.
That's it for this week. Be on the lookout for the next 20, which will be coming within the next few days or so.
